Monday, May 5, 2008

The Non-Recession Recession

I wrote a few weeks ago that despite the news media proclamation and the consensus of economists that we were in a recession (or a depression) was wrong because we did not have any data to support that notion. Now that first quarter GDP shows a positive growth of 0.6% (note:revised up to 0.9%!!!). Unemployment is a historically low 5% and manufacturing data shows an upturn in orders. It turns out consensus science was once again wrong.

And we won't go into a recession!!

How do I know that? I work for a big international company and like all international companies we have been expanding into growing markets like gang-busters for the past 10 years. And there is no slow down over seas. With the weak dollar, exports are booming as American goods are cheaper in non-US markets.

This is brings jobs and dollars back into the US, counteracting a lot of the outsourcing that has been going on.

The economy has been growing since 2001 and we have not reached a peak. Maybe when the Democrats fail to extend the current tax cuts we will see that come to pass.


sbvor said...

I agree.

It is increasingly unlikely that we are currently in a recession:
The Recession of 2008 That Wasn’t?

Anonymous said...

Great perspective. I've been preaching this for months. I don't agree with the notion that economist universally have agreed that we were in a recession, because I've attended workshops over the past several months with analysts and economists. Very few have agreed that we were in a recession. If you listen the the Libs, however, then you'll hear "recession" and "horrible economy" tossed around like a hacky sack.