Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Gold, the US$ and a Train Wreck

The price of g0ld has recently spiked over $1100 an ounce after sitting under $1000 for several months. Meanwhile the value of the US dollar has continued it's slide downwards. The Fed recently stated that they will continue with their easy money policy until unemployment starts to pick up. With unemployment likely to keep moving up, it means that the Fed will continue to flood the world with dollars.

What does this mean? Is this 1978 when gold will increase in price by a factor of 5 in 18 months and inflation soared to our highest levels? One can't but help to think that history is set for a repeat. If other commodities follow the price of gold, a second economic collapse might be in the offing.

The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can't lower interest rates anymore. If they do the right thing (like Volcker - raise interest rates), it will hurt the current politicians as unemployment rises. If they do nothing, another massive bubble will blow up and create a train wreck bigger then we saw last year.

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